MBS prices are down about 7/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 500 points again as oil prices pressed higher amid signs that the Iran war is spreading across the Middle East, further threatening to disrupt energy supplies. Iran has escalated its attacks on energy infrastructure across a wider swath of the Middle East. Iraq closed its oil port terminals after strikes on two tankers off its coast. Iran warned markets to brace for crude prices to hit $200, while its new leader said the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed. The developments stoked fears of a prolonged and widespread conflict, already in play after President Trump vowed to “finish the job” in Iran. Today’s economic reports showed that Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7 decreased by 1,000 to 213,000 (Briefing.com consensus 215,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending February 28 decreased by 21,000 to 1.850 million. The key takeaway from the report is that claims remain just above the 200,000 mark, reflecting a low-firing environment. Total housing starts increased 7.2% month-over-month in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.487 million units (Briefing.com consensus 1.340 million), with single-unit starts down 2.8%. Building permits decreased 5.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.376 million (Briefing.com consensus 1.392 million), with single-unit permits down 0.9%. The key takeaway from the report is that it beat expectations thanks to strong growth in multi-unit starts while single-unit housing starts were down 2.8% month-over-month. The trade deficit narrowed to $54.5 billion in January (Briefing.com consensus -$67.9 billion) from a revised $72.9 billion deficit (from -$70.3 billion) in December. The narrower gap was the result of exports being $15.8 billion more than December exports and imports being $2.6 billion less than December imports. The key takeaway from the report is that the monthly trade deficit returned to the $50 billion range, which has been a familiar zone since last year’s implementation of tariffs.

MBS prices are down about 7/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 500 points as investors eyed attacks on shipping in the Iran war and assessed the latest inflation report, which came in line with expectations. Total CPI increased 0.3% month-over-month in February (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) and was up 2.4% year-over-year, versus 2.4% for the 12 months ending in January. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) and was up 2.5% year-over-year, versus 2.5% for the 12 months ending in January. The key takeaway from the report is that it matched expectations at the headline and core levels, which is mildly positive since the recent surge in energy prices will increase the market’s expectations for a hotter reading in March. The volume of mortgage applications in the US rose by 3.2% from the previous week in the first week of March, recording its fourth consecutive period to the second highest level since 2022. The increase took place despite a fresh increase in benchmark mortgage rates, as the outbreak of war in Persian Gulf countries triggered a surge in energy prices and lifted the yield in long-dated Treasury securities. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a new home jumped by 7.8% after having underperformed the total figure for multiple weeks. In the meantime, applications for a contract to refinance a mortgage, which are more sensitive to short-term changes in interest rates, inched higher by 0.5%. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency said it would release 400 million barrels of oil from reserves to ease the supply crunch and put the brakes on a roaring oil rally that briefly lifted prices toward $120 per barrel on Monday. The action is the agency’s largest-ever emergency oil release in history.

MBS prices are up about 1/32 this morning while the DOW is up about 230 points as investors weighed President Trump’s hint at a swift end to the Iran war with other conflicting signals and the G7 nations began preparing for potential releases from their strategic petroleum reserves. The announcement pushed oil prices further into the red after they fell sharply late yesterday on comments from Trump that the US-Israel offensive has effectively cut off Iran’s naval and air capabilities, and that it was “very far” ahead of an expected four-to-five week timeline. At the same time, though, Israel’s leader Benjamin Netanyahu said the offensive was “not done yet” before starting a new wave of strikes on Tehran on Tuesday. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, meanwhile, said the US would “not relent” until Iran is defeated. Iran has voiced defiance that bodes ill for an end to Tehran’s effective blockade on tanker traffic through the crucial Strait of Hormuz. Today’s economic reports showed that existing home sales increased 1.7% month-over-month in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million (Briefing.com consensus 3.88 million) from a revised 4.02 million (from 3.91 million) in January. Sales were down 1.4% on a year-over-year basis. The key takeaway from the report is that sales increased despite continued pressure on affordability as median prices grew for the 32nd month in a row. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US fell for a second month to 98.8 in February 2026 from 99.3 in January and below forecasts of 99.7. “Although optimism declined slightly, small businesses report feeling more certain as they look toward the coming months. High sales and increased profits made February a more positive month for many owners, but competition from large businesses is putting stress on Main Street firms as they navigate the current economic climate”, said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell 8 points to a net 8%. Also, 15% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down 1 point from January. The last time labor quality, reported as the top issue, was this low was in April 2020. 59% of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions affected their business to some extent, a decrease of 3 points from January.

MBS prices are down about 1/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 470 points as crude prices eased after they surged past $100 per barrel amid fears of a prolonged Middle East conflict. Oil prices were coming off earlier highs after spiking around 25% late Sunday to top $119 a barrel, reaching levels not seen since 2022. The spike came as conflict in Iran spurred crude-producing countries to cut output, already curbed by the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor. Kuwait confirmed unspecified production cuts, while Iraqi output is reported to have plunged about 70%. Amid the supply crunch, ministers from the G7 top economies said they would consider tapping the International Energy Agency’s strategic petroleum reserves if necessary, which appeared to soothe nerves rattled on Sunday by Trump’s suggestion that high costs were “a very small price to pay” for security. U.S. Treasuries continue trading near their starting levels, keeping yields just below Friday’s highs. The market attempted a bounce off lows about an hour after the start, with the long bond leading a bounce that briefly lifted all tenors above their starting levels. However, the past 15 minutes have seen a return to morning lows just as the market received some headlines from the G7 call. French Finance Minister Lescure, who heads France’s G7 presidency for 2026, said that members are ready to use strategic oil reserves to stabilize the market, but they have not decided to deploy these reserves just yet. Looking at domestic economic reports, investors will be watching closely for Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index and Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures index readings, though neither will capture the effect of oil’s dramatic recent surge on price pressures just yet.

MBS prices are up about 4/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 600 points as the key monthly jobs report surprised to the downside and oil prices jumped amid fresh fears about a hit to supply from the expanding Middle East conflict. Nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 in February (Briefing.com consensus: 60,000). Revisions for December and January combined were 69,000 lower than previously reported. The bright spot was average hourly earnings, which jumped 0.4%, leaving the year-over-year increase at 3.8% versus 3.7% in January, and real earnings on a positive trajectory. The key takeaway from the report, however, is that it muddles the economic view for the Fed, too, with its twin planks of negative job growth and higher wage inflation. Accordingly, look for the Fed to sit on its policy hands, unwilling to cut rates for now as it also contends with the spike in oil prices and the uncertainty of the Iran war. Total retail sales were down 0.2% month-over-month in January (Briefing.com consensus: -0.1%) following an unchanged reading for December. Excluding autos, retail sales were flat (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) for the second straight month. The key takeaway from the report is that sales activity was disrupted by the winter storms, so the result isn’t as disappointing as it looks, which comes through in the fact that nonstore retailer sales were up a robust 1.9% month-over-month. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed after Qatar’s energy minister predicted the war on Iran would force Gulf exporters to shut off production within days and warned it could spur prices to $150 a barrel. At the same time, The Wall Street Journal reported that Kuwait has begun cutting production. President Trump said Friday that the only path to resolution in Iran is an “Unconditional Surrender.”