MBS prices are up about 5/32 this morning while the DOW is up about 600 points as stocks surge and oil prices sink after investors welcomed a breakthrough US-Iran deal to end hostilities. The provisional agreement could reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz waterway to oil tankers as soon as this week, but a return to normal flows is seen as months away. The two sides are set to meet on Friday in Switzerland to formally sign the interim deal, but a lack of detail about its terms is keeping shipowners and other operators wary. Today’s economic reports showed that industrial production increased just 0.1% month-over-month in May (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) following an upwardly revised 0.9% increase (from 0.7%) in April. The capacity utilization rate was 76.2% (Briefing.com consensus: 76.2%), up from 76.1% in April. Total industrial production was up 1.7% year-over-year. The capacity utilization rate was 3.2 percentage points below its long-run average. The key takeaway from the report is that manufacturing output moved sideways in May, reflecting a cooling down after some solid activity in April. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which tracks US homebuilder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes, fell to 35 in June 2026, down from 37 in May and slightly below market expectations of 36. Within the report, current sales conditions declined by two points to 38, while sales expectations for the next six months remained unchanged at 45. Buyer traffic also held steady at a weak level of 25, signaling persistently soft demand. The survey also highlighted continued reliance on pricing strategies. 35% of builders reported cutting prices in June, up from 32% in May. The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to 5.7 in June 2026, down from 19.6 in the previous month and well below market expectations of 14, indicating a notable slowdown in regional manufacturing activity, according to firms surveyed in the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Despite the weaker headline reading, several underlying indicators showed continued expansion. New orders and shipments both rose, while unfilled orders also increased.

MBS prices are down about 1/32 this morning while the DOW is up about 300 points as investors assessed reports that the US and Iran are closing in on an interim peace deal. They are close to sealing an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz when G7 leaders meet next week. Oil prices extended losses, with Brent crude futures tumbling as much as 5% this morning. SpaceX (SPCX) made its historic debut, opening at $150 per share. Investors’ expectations for the stock were sky-high going into the start of trading. Today’s lone economic report showed that the preliminary reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June increased to 48.9 (Briefing.com consensus: 46.2) from the final reading of 44.8 for May, which was an historic low. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 60.7. The key takeaway from the report is that the improved readings revolved around the early-month easing in gasoline prices, which was a relief factor felt by consumers across age, education, and political party. Still, there were reported concerns about higher inflation remaining stubborn.

MBS prices are up about 2/32 this morning while the DOW is up about 200 points after the US struck Iran in a major escalation of the war, setting up for a rebound from the market’s latest sell-off as investors weighed the latest moves in the conflict. The US’s latest round of strikes ended swiftly, leading investors to hope once again that the conflict would soon be resolved. The renewed military activity and fresh threats set markets up for a difficult day on Wednesday. Stocks dove and oil jumped amid signs the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed for the foreseeable future. The day’s downbeat sentiment was exacerbated by the latest inflation report, which showed prices rising rapidly. Wholesale inflation for May came in higher than expected. The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.1% month-over-month in May (Briefing.com consensus: 0.7%) following a downwardly revised 1.1% increase (from 1.4%) in April. Excluding food and energy, the index for final demand jumped 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.4%) following a downwardly revised 0.7% increase (from 1.0%) in April. On a year-over-year basis, the index for final demand was up 6.5%, while the index for final demand, excluding food and energy, was up 4.9%. The key takeaway from the report is that producers aren’t finding much price relief; hence, it is expected that consumers won’t find much price relief in the near-term either, unless producers choose to absorb the higher costs. Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 6 increased by 4,000 to 229,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 222,000), while continuing claims for the week ending May 30 increased by 24,000 to 1.795 million. Jobless claims were higher in the latest week, but the key takeaway remains that they are not at levels that would connote a material degradation of the labor market.

MBS prices are down about 3/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 700 points after consumer inflation soared to its highest level in three years and renewed US-Iran military clashes cast doubt on the odds for peace talks. Consumer prices rose at the fastest rate since May 2023. The 4.2% annual rise in CPI inflation was in line with expectations; however, the hot reading may boost bets that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates this year. Energy prices remained the biggest driver of inflation, amid the protracted war with Iran. Tensions between the US and Iran ramped back up, with the two sides trading strikes overnight after the downing of an Apache helicopter. President Trump said on Wednesday that Iran has “taken too long” to negotiate and would have to “pay the price.” Later, he told reporters that the US would “hit” Iran “very hard” today. US mortgage applications increased by 10.8% in the first week of June, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. This rebound follows a 2.5% decline in the previous period and ends a three-week streak of decreases, marking the highest rise since late February, even as benchmark mortgage rates climbed. Refinance applications, which are particularly sensitive to short-term interest rate changes, jumped by 15.3%, while applications for mortgages to purchase a home rose by 7.3%.

MBS prices are up about 6/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 400 points as a market rotation out of chip stocks resumed and the AI trade lost steam. Meanwhile, one of the primary drivers of rising prices, the war with Iran, shows no signs of ending, though President Trump said peace talks are on track after Iran and Israel agreed to end recent tit-for-tat attacks. Wall Street is gearing up for a major event on Friday, when SpaceX (SPCX) could make its market debut and set a record for the largest public offering in history. Today’s economic reports showed that the trade deficit narrowed to $55.9 billion in April (Briefing.com consensus: -$55.5 billion) from an upwardly revised $56.6 billion (from -$60.3 billion) in March. The narrowing was a function of exports being $8.3 billion more than March exports and imports being $7.6 billion more than March imports. The key takeaway from the report is that the export strength was concentrated in crude oil exports (+$6.4 billion), fuel oil exports (+$1.3 billion), and other petroleum products (+$1.0 billion), which were boosted by the supply disruptions tied to the difficulties traversing the Strait of Hormuz. Existing home sales increased 3.2% month-over-month in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million from an upwardly revised 4.04 million (from 4.02 million) in April. Sales were also up 3.2% on a year-over-year basis. The key takeaway from the report is that existing home sales hit their highest level since December, bolstered by lower mortgage rates (versus the year-ago period) and income gains outpacing home price growth, which led to improving affordability conditions across all regions.