MBS prices are up about 4/32 this morning while the DOW is up about 1000 points after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial traffic, a major step in easing US-Iran war tensions. Markets have now fully recovered losses tied to the recent Iran conflict. On Thursday, Trump said that negotiations were going well and suggested that a permanent peace deal could be on the way following negotiations over the weekend. Speaking to reporters at the White House, the president said: “It’s looking very good that we’re going to make a deal with Iran, and it’s going to be a good deal.” Bond yields are lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.24%. Internationally, Asian markets finished lower overnight, while Europe is trading higher. The U.S. dollar is modestly weaker against major international currencies, potentially signaling less demand for the liquidity and stability offered by the world’s reserve currency. Oil prices pull back – In energy markets, WTI oil is down roughly 12% as supply disruptions should ease with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that normally handles about 20% of global oil and gas flows. While U.S. restrictions on Iranian ports remain in place, oil futures markets are also retreating, now implying crude prices could move back toward the low-$70s by year-end. If realized, falling oil prices should help ease headline inflation and help reduce pressure on energy-intensive sectors. Earnings season off to a solid start – Earnings season kicked off this week on a positive note, with the six largest U.S. banks delivering better-than-expected earnings per share. There are no economic reports scheduled for today.

MBS prices are down about 2/32 this morning while the DOW is up about 100 points after President Trump said Israel and Lebanon agreed to a temporary ceasefire, which has been a key sticking point in US-Iran negotiations. The US and Iran are reportedly in indirect discussions to prolong their two-week ceasefire set to expire on April 22, with both sides said to be in favor of an extension. The US is still “very much engaged in these negotiations,” according Karoline Levitt, the White House press secretary. Today’s economic reports showed that Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 decreased by 11,000 to 207,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 215,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending April 4 increased by 31,000 to 1.818 million, but the four-week moving average of 1,813,250 is the lowest since June 1, 2024. The key takeaway from the report is that it refutes any notion that the labor market is cracking in a way that will lock up discretionary spending. Initial jobless claims, a leading indicator, continue to run at historically low levels. The Philadelphia Fed Index jumped to 26.7 in April (Briefing.com consensus: 12.7) from 18.1 in March. The dividing line between expansion and contraction for this series is 0.0, so the April reading implies manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed region accelerated versus the prior month. The key takeaway from the report is that price increases have become more widespread, yet the demand is still there, evidenced by a pickup in the new orders index to 33.0 from 8.6. Industrial production declined 0.5% month-over-month in March (Briefing.com consensus: 0.1%) following an upwardly revised 0.7% increase (from 0.2%) in February. The capacity utilization rate was 75.7% (Briefing.com consensus: 76.4%), versus a downwardly revised 76.1% (from 76.3%) in February. The key takeaway from the report is that the headline decline is not as bad as it looks when taking into account the large upward revision to industrial production in February, which effectively offsets the decline in March.

MBS prices are down about 4/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 240 points as investors weighed President Trump’s signal of confidence that the Iran war will end soon. Markets are now waiting for insight into any progress, which could reignite the momentum in stocks that has effectively wiped out losses since Iran hostilities started. The S&P 500 has posted gains in nine of the past 10 sessions and sits just shy of its late-January peak. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite extended its winning streak to 10 consecutive days. Looking ahead, attention shifts to a busy earnings slate. Major financial institutions continue to report results. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley both beat on the top and bottom lines in the early morning docket. Mortgage applications in the US increased 1.8% in the week ended April 10th 2026, the first rise in five weeks, following a 0.8% drop in the previous period, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed. Refinancing applications which are most sensitive to weekly interest rate moves, jumped 5.1% while those to purchase a home fell 1%. “Purchase activity remained subdued as potential homebuyers remained hesitant given the current economic uncertainty, which kept purchase applications below last year’s level for the second consecutive week,” Joel Kan, an MBA economist said. Meanwhile, the average US 30-year fixed mortgage rate for conforming loans of $806,500 or less fell for a 2nd consecutive week to 6.42% in the week ending April 10, 2026, reaching the lowest value in about a month. U.S. import prices increase 0.8% in March over the prior month, coming in below estimates for a 2.5% rise. Higher prices for fuels and lubricants — up 2.9% month-over-month* — drew much of the overall increase, but outside of energy, price pressures remained contained. On a year-over-year basis, import prices were up 2.1%, notably below overall CPI inflation, which is running at 3.3%. This divergence suggests that lower tariffs may be helping to offset stickier domestic services inflation. While energy costs are likely to drive overall inflation higher over the months ahead, the impact should be temporary.

MBS prices are up about 2/32 this morning while the DOW is up about 225 points after President Trump signaled he’s open to further talks with Iran, stoking optimism for a long-term truce. Today’s economic reports showed that the Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5% month-over-month in March (Briefing.com consensus: 1.2%) following a downwardly revised 0.5% increase (from 0.7%) in February. The index for final demand, less foods and energy, rose just 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.4%) following a downwardly revised 0.3% increase (from 0.5%) in February. These changes left the index for final demand up 4.0% year-over-year, versus 3.4% in February, and the index for final demand, less foods and energy, up 3.8% year-over-year, unchanged from February. The key takeaway from the report is that the inflation seen at the wholesale level in March was driven largely by energy prices and gasoline prices (+15.7%) in particular. The index for final demand services was unchanged, so the market is giving itself some latitude to look through the energy price shock as something that is temporary. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US fell to 95.8 points in March 2026, the lowest since April 2025 from 98.8 in February and below forecast of 98.6. The reading is now below its 52-year average of 98, as “the dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike. Small business owners are having to absorb those higher input costs and pass them along to their customers”, said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. Also, the Uncertainty Index rose 4 points to 92, well above its historical average of 68. The frequency of reports of positive profit trends fell 11 points to a net -25% and the net % of owners expecting better business conditions fell 7 points to a net 11%, the third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level since October 2024. On the other hand, “the 20% Small Business Deduction and other supportive small business tax provisions in the Working Families Tax Cut Act have had many positives for small business owners”, Bill Dunkelberg added.

MBS prices are down about 1/32 this morning while the DOW is up about 50 points after President Trump ordered a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of US-Iran negotiations. Trump’s move to block all maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz starting at 7 a.m. PT escalated already high tensions in the Middle East. Iran responded by vowing to target all Persian Gulf ports if its own energy hubs are threatened, calling the US move “an act of piracy.” Oil prices jumped back above $100 a barrel on the threat to global energy flows. Today’s lone economic report showed that existing-home sales decreased by 3.6% month-over-month in March, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report. The report provides the real estate ecosystem—including agents, homebuyers and sellers—with data on the level of home sales, price, and inventory. “March home sales remained sluggish and below last year’s pace,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. “Lower consumer confidence and softer job growth continue to hold back buyers.” Month-over-month sales fell in all four regions. Year-over-year sales rose in the South and West and fell in the Northeast and Midwest. “Inventory remains a major constraint on the market,” Yun said. “The inventory-to-sales ratio, or supply-to-demand ratio, is below historical norms. An additional 300,000 to 500,000 homes for sale would help bring the market closer to normal conditions and allow consumers to make purchase decisions without feeling rushed.”